The Sigmoid Curve of Performance

I made the big decision last week to resign from my current job and venture off into the big wide world. I don’t currently have anything lined up. Plan A is to get a full-time position, Plan B is to contract, and Plan C is to do lots of baking and catch up on reading. I’ve thought this through, which should be obvious from the amount of plans I’ve made, but I do get asked what I am going on to and get the subsequent shocked expression when I reply with “I don’t know… yet”.

So HOW did I decide to do this? Well, and this might sound really odd; I used something called a Sigmoid curve to help with my decision making (amongst other things of course, like how poor I’m going to be if it doesn’t work out – I’m going to focus on the positive though). The Sigmoid curve was something refreshed in my memory a few weeks ago, at the HRINZ Industrial Org SIG that I raved about in a previous blog. If you don’t know what a sigmoid curve is, it is a line that goes upwards, plateaus and then starts going down. It is generally used to describe organizational performance and change management. I think it’s a good model for individual performance as well.

So WHY on earth did I use an abstract model like the Sigmoid curve to make a really important and life changing decision? I used it because it made sense to me. My performance shot up in my first 1-2 years in this role, by year 3 it plateaued, and now in year 3+ my performance is deteriorating (despite my efforts to kick myself into gear). I could float around until I find a new position and then leave, but I don’t believe I’d be doing myself, or the company, any favors.

So WHAT does the sigmoid curve represent in terms of individual performance? Just like new business ventures, employees grow and develop in their role. Once they’ve mastered their work, their growth plateaus and then, unless a new challenge is introduced, there is risk that their growth will deteriorate. There is actually research into this as well, so I’m not just spouting off based on my own experience. I came across Karesek and Theorell’s Healthy Work: Stress, Productivity, and the Reconstruction of Working Life in my Masters research. They talk about situations whereby a decrease in pressure can lead to apathy and a decline in learning.

Personally, I thrive on project work and new challenges. I’m never going to survive in a role that is considered as ‘maintaining the status quo’. However, I do know people who are happy with things as they are, but they are usually not the kinds of people who cope with change well and we all know things change sooner or later. This has implications for both performance management and succession planning. How do you recognize when an employee is nearing the top of the curve? And then what do you do about it when they are? There are some awesome tools out there to measure performance (like Sonar6), but then what do you do about that performance? That’s what counts.